The 2026 U.S. winter wheat crop is on track to become one of the smallest of the century. EarthDaily currently estimates production at 29.17 million metric tons, while the USDA’s recent projection is even lower, at about 1.05 billion bushels, equivalent to roughly 28.5 million metric tons. Two main factors explain this historically low outlook.
The first factor is drought, especially across the core U.S. winter wheat belt, which has significantly reduced yield potential.
We are currently estimating winter wheat yields at 9% below trend, while the USDA projects an even larger decline of 11%. If confirmed, this would represent the largest winter wheat yield loss in the past 10 years.
The disappointing yield outlook is being driven by months of severe dryness, persistently below-average soil moisture, and weak vegetation development reflected in NDVI values.
Several key wheat-producing states, including Kansas, Colorado, Texas, and Oklahoma, have experienced prolonged moisture deficits during critical stages of crop development. In southwestern Kansas, winter precipitation totals rank among the lowest observed in recent years.
This is a risk we have been highlighting for months. Below is an excerpt from our World in 10 report published on March 13:
“Soil moisture levels are below average in several key wheat-producing states, including Kansas, Colorado, Texas, and Oklahoma. In southwestern Kansas, winter precipitation totals are among the lowest observed in recent years. Rainfall trends in the coming weeks will therefore be critical for spring crop development.”
Because these indicators were visible before the USDA’s latest production cut, they provided an early signal that the crop was moving toward a materially lower yield outcome.
The second factor is harvested area. Just like production, the harvested winter wheat area is also projected to reach the lowest level of the century.
Even before the full impact of drought became clear, the market was already facing a structurally smaller crop due to reduced planted and harvested acreage.
The wheat market had already begun pricing in a tighter supply scenario by early February.
Although the USDA currently projects lower yields than EarthDaily does, our analysis has been signaling below-five-year-average yields since late March, with consecutive downward revisions week after week. We were also projecting harvested area below the five-year average before the USDA released its latest estimates.
The key question now is whether there is still enough time for the crop to recover, or whether the discussion has shifted toward estimating how large the production losses will ultimately become.
The season is not over yet, and weather conditions during the coming weeks will still play an important role in determining final yields. However, after months of drought stress and disappointing vegetation performance, the margin for recovery is becoming increasingly narrow.
We continue to monitor rainfall trends, soil moisture, and NDVI dynamics closely and will provide further updates as the season progresses.
To learn how EarthDaily’s agriculture intelligence helps identify early signals in global crop conditions, weather risks, and agricultural markets, contact our agriculture team.