September brought a sharper split across major growing regions. Persistent rainfall delayed Canada’s wheat harvest and prolonged the U.S. crop cycle, while dry conditions placed further pressure on Argentine and Australian winter crops and complicated early wheat planting across Europe.
Rainfall improved soybean-planting prospects in parts of central Brazil and restored moisture across much of Ukraine and western Russia. Conditions remained mixed in Asia, where weak crop signals emerged in southern India while Heilongjiang retained strong soybean vigor.
Canadian wheat-growing areas entered September with harvests already delayed after a prolonged crop cycle. Further heavy rainfall increased concerns about field access, disease and grain quality. Drier conditions were repeatedly forecast during the month, but by late September the models still disagreed on whether a sustained harvest window would develop.
Across the U.S. Corn Belt, soil moisture remained high throughout September. Despite August’s exceptional rainfall, vegetation indices showed no clear evidence of widespread crop damage. Crop vigor stayed satisfactory to above average in key areas, and NDVI curves increasingly pointed to an extended corn and soybean cycle, including in Iowa and the eastern Corn Belt. Continued wetness was broadly supportive of late grain filling, although disease, quality and fieldwork risks remained worth monitoring.
Rainfall returned to central Brazil early in September, improving conditions ahead of soybean planting. The recovery was uneven: soil moisture increased in several growing regions, while the intermediate soil layer remained relatively dry in Mato Grosso. By month-end, above-average rainfall was forecast for Mato Grosso, offering a chance to improve planting conditions. In southern Brazil, the wetter pattern also raised concerns for wheat approaching maturity and harvest.
Argentina began the month with satisfactory soil moisture for wheat and barley, making the initial dry spell manageable. Dry weather then persisted across most growing areas. By late September, vegetation indices were weakening, particularly in the south, although they remained close to average across much of the wheat and barley region.
Soil moisture improves unevenly ahead of Brazil’s soybean planting, remaining low in Mato Grosso through September. Forecast rainfall could bring relief in October. Source: EarthDaily analysis
September was notably dry across much of Europe. Earlier rainfall arrived too late to reverse damage to the corn crop, and vegetation indices remained exceptionally low in Hungary and surrounding areas. Conditions were more favorable in Poland, where crop vigor was above average. As dryness persisted and spread, limited soil moisture became a growing concern ahead of winter wheat planting, particularly in Western Europe.
In Ukraine, central corn-growing areas continued to show below-average vegetation indices and early senescence, pointing to reduced yield potential. The moisture outlook changed during the month: after a dry start in southern Ukraine and Russia, rainfall improved soil moisture across much of Ukraine and western Russia. By late September, conditions there were generally satisfactory for wheat planting, even though the earlier damage to Ukrainian corn remained visible.
European wheat early planting faces dryness, with the low-precipitation trend of September persisting in most of the continent in early October. Source: EarthDaily analysis
Australia entered September after a broadly favorable August, but forecasts shifted toward drier conditions. Uncertainty over rainfall in Western Australia was followed by a dry outlook from South Australia to Queensland. Crop vigor initially remained high despite some decline; by late September, vegetation indices were falling rapidly in northern New South Wales. This made the impact of the emerging dry pattern a more immediate question for winter crops.
Dryness is testing Australia’s previously strong winter crops, for example in New South Wales. Source: EarthDaily analysis
India’s weak and uneven monsoon remained a concern at the start of September. By mid-month, vegetation indices in the core soybean-growing region were mostly near or above average, showing no broad deterioration despite the rainfall deficit. The picture became more regional by late September, when vegetation indices in the south indicated significantly disrupted crop growth.
In China, early-September conditions appeared favorable across much of the northeast. Later observations showed an early end to the corn cycle in parts of Shandong and Liaoning, while Heilongjiang’s soybean crop retained well-above-average vigor and a prolonged cycle. The outlook therefore differed substantially by crop and region.
NDVI signals are worrying in southern India and point to lower national corn yield potential. Source: EarthDaily analysis