As mentioned in the previous post, La Niña conditions – the tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures, which are well below average, and all atmospheric parameters – has developed.
- Models projections shows moderate/strong La Niña conditions through 2020 and beginning of 2021;
- Therefore, there’s a strong probability of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures in many areas around the globe in the coming months;
- It appears that we have a moderate La Niña presently, and that this event will continue into the winter and possibly return to neutral conditions by the spring.
BRASIL – May La Niña impact summer crop in southern Brazil?
YES. In Rio Grande do Sul, a state responsible for about 16% of soybean production in the country and 20% of corn production in the first season, low rainfall may be due to the La Niña phenomenon. The water balance is negative ① (in comparison to the average of the last 10 years), and the soil moisture, at an unfavorable level for the development of grains ②. In November, until 11/11, the cumulative precipitation was 11.12 mm ③, while the average for the period is 64.41 mm. In addition, the forecast is that the volume of rainfall will remain low, at least, until the last week of the month ④. La Niña should limit the volume of rainfall, which may reflect on productivity in soybean fields. To monitor.
ARGENTINA – Can corn and soybean production be impacted by La Niña?
YES. In Argentina, in Cordoba and Santa Fe, wheat production was impacted from a severe drought. This drought scenario may be repeated again, this time affecting corn and soybean fields. In the yellow area on the map, good rains were recorded at the end of October, however, too late for the recovery of wheat production, but favorable for the corn fields. However, the water balance remains negative in the region ①, as well as soil moisture ②, and, in the first 10 days of November, the rainfall was low ③. For the coming days the forecast it’s expected that the volume of rainfall will remain low ④, which increases the possibility of having an unfavorable scenario for the production of corn and soybeans, just as it was for wheat. One of the factors that must contribute to the unfavorable scenario is the La Niña phenomenon. It is still too early in the season to affirm negative impacts on Argentine soybean and corn production due to the impact of La Niña, but To monitor.
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