The Current Situation
- According to the current tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and the most atmospheric indicators, ENSO is currently in La Niña phase
- According to the models, there is an important probability to stay in La Niña conditions the next weeks and the coming months.
- The major La Niña impacts expected in the following season are:
- A significant probability for a dry anomaly in Southern Brazil, Uruguay and North East Aergentina
- A significant probability for both dry and warm anomalies in Southern US (Florida, Gul of Mexico)
- A significant probability for both wet and cold anomalies in Eastern Australia
- A significant probability for a wet anomaly in SAF
El Niño, La Niña And ENSO: What Are They?
La Niña and Rainfall
La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific are known to shift rainfall patterns in many different parts of the world. Although they vary somewhat from one La Niña to the next, the strongest shifts remain fairly consistent in the regions and seasons shown on the map below.
AUSTRALIA – La Niña could lead a higher production in Australia?
YES. In the last two months (August and September) precipitation was above the average of the last 10 years. The temperature was close to the average. For the last quarter of the year, there is a possibility of the influence of the phenomenon La Niña in the country, which can result in above-average rainfall and below-average temperatures (there is also a chance that La Niña collaborates with low rainfall in the Western part). Good rainfall in most parts of the country can contribute to good production, however, the dryness in the West could limited the national figures.
Brazil – Is Brazil already under the influence of La Niña?
POSSIBLY. The La Niña phenomenon results in low rainfall in the Midwest and, mainly, in the South of the country. Until the end of September, the Midwest has been experiencing a severe drought, which has kept soil moisture at the lowest level in the last 15 years. In the South of the country, the rains in the first 13 days of October were below average, which may be an indication that La Niña is already reflecting on the climate in the country. For the coming months, if the phenomenon consolidates, precipitation should remain below average, in addition temperatures should remain above average, increasing the requirement for water. This scenario may impact the potential yield of crops however, we are still at the beginning of the season, too early to confirm that there is already an impact.
ARGENTINA – Should we be concern about La Niña in Argentina?
YES. A dry pattern is spreading across the country, from the North and Central to the South. As a result, globally, monthly rainfall has been below the average for the past 10 years. For the coming months, if the La Niña phenomenon consolidates, a low level of precipitation and temperatures above the historical average are expected, which increases the need for water. Therefore, this scenario may limit the potential yield of the crops. To monitor.
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