Temperatures in the coming days are expected to be below average across wheat, barley, and rapeseed areas ①, with snowfall likely across the region ②. These conditions could disrupt and slow sowing operations as well as the growth of planted crops.
01
Canada - Could weather conditions slow the start of the spring wheat season?
Yes
02
USA - Is the wheat situation deteriorating in Kansas?
Yes
While vegetation indices are still holding up in western Kansas, this no longer appears to be the case in the central and eastern parts of the state ①, with NDVI curves reflecting very weak crop vigor, close to levels observed in May 2023 (a poor wheat year) ②.
03
Brazil - Does dry weather in the central part of the country appear to be intensifying, signaling the start of the dry season?
Yes
Rainfall over the past 30 days has been below average across a large part of the country ①. This dry trend is expected to continue in the coming days ②. Given the rainfall dynamics, this likely reflects the onset of the dry season.
04
Brazil - Is the late corn season in Goiás exposed to the onset of the dry season, as in 2021?
No
In 2021, the dry season significantly impacted the yield potential of the late safrinha corn cycle. In the 2026 season, we are again observing a late cycle similar to that of 2021 ①. However, soil moisture levels, which are much higher this year than in 2021 or 2022, significantly reduce short-term concerns regarding crop vigor ②. Still worth monitoring.
05
Brazil - Is the crop situation in the southern corn belt satisfactory?
Yes
Vegetation indices remain high in Paraná ①, and this season’s rainfall levels, especially with additional precipitation expected in the coming days ②, provide reassurance regarding corn yield development this season.
06
Argentina - Is the upcoming dry trend unfavorable for the late stages of the corn cycle?
No
Precipitation is expected to be well below average in the coming days ①. This is not an issue for two reasons: firstly, significant rainfall over the past weeks eliminates any concern regarding water deficit ②; secondly, high humidity increases the risk of grain quality deterioration. A shift toward drier conditions would therefore be desirable across the country.
07
Europe - Is the moisture situation continuing to deteriorate across the continent?
Yes
Soil moisture levels, which have been low across a large part of Europe in recent days ①, are expected to remain critically low across the continent ②, particularly in Poland, France, and Spain.
08
Europe - Is a gradual deterioration in NDVI values being observed across the continent?
Yes
Comparing vegetation indices between April 8 ① and April 18 ② shows a deterioration in vegetation indices across the continent, particularly in Poland, France, and Spain.
09
Russia + Ukraine - Are spring crop sowings progressing rapidly across the entire country?
No
Although this will need to be confirmed in the coming days, low vegetation indices in western Volga appear to indicate a delay in spring crop development ①, likely resulting from delayed sowing and germination following heavy rainfall in recent weeks ②.
10
China - Are rainfall forecasts now clearer across the winter wheat area?
No
The dry trend anticipated in the coming days by the ECMWF model ① is still not confirmed by the GFS model, which is much more optimistic in terms of rainfall ②.
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