Temperatures in the coming days are expected to be well above average according to GFS ①, which should accelerate the early development stage of spring crops, currently appearing slightly delayed based on vegetation indices ②.
01
Canada - Are temperatures favorable for boosting crop emergence?
Yes
02
USA - Are dry conditions a short-term concern in the spring wheat area?
No
Unlike Canada, the U.S. spring wheat area is not expected to receive significant rainfall in the coming days according to GFS ①. There are no concerns at this stage, as dry conditions are even favorable for rapid sowing progress. However, the similarity with the dry 2021 season will need to be monitored in the coming weeks ②.
03
USA - Is the winter wheat situation improving in the central part of the country?
No
Vegetation indices remain below average across several key winter wheat-producing states ①, notably in Kansas where NDVI curves show a very disappointing situation, close to the poor 2023 and 2022 seasons ②.
04
Brazil - Does the corn situation in Mato Grosso remain satisfactory?
Yes
Vegetation indices in Mato Grosso, the leading safrinha corn-producing state, are mostly above average ①, with NDVI curves supportive of grain filling ②.
05
Brazil - Is the corn situation satisfactory in Paraná?
Yes
In the southern part of the country, recent rainfall should help maintain vegetation indices above average ①, as reflected by the recent positive trend in NDVI curves ②.
06
Brazil - Is the adverse 2021 scenario being anticipated in southern Goiás?
No
In southern Goiás, NDVI values are somewhat disappointing and fairly close to the poor 2021 season ①. However, we do not favor this very adverse scenario, as soil moisture levels in 2026 are much more favorable than in 2021 or 2022 ②.
07
Argentina - Are conditions favorable for grain maturation?
Yes
Precipitation in corn and soybean areas over the coming days is expected to remain well below average according to both ECMWF ① and GFS ②. This is positive news at this stage for grain maturation and harvest progress, while also reducing the risk of grain quality deterioration.
08
Europe - Are dry conditions as severe in May as they were in April?
No
We are observing and forecasting satisfactory rainfall across parts of Europe during the first half of May, according to ECMWF ① and even more so according to GFS ②. This is particularly the case for Spain, France, and Germany.
09
Europe - Are dry conditions beginning to degrade crop vigor in the central-eastern part of the continent?
Yes
In central-eastern Europe ①, rainfall expected in the coming days, with varying intensity depending on the models, will be welcome as we have recently observed a deterioration in NDVI values ②.
10
Ukraine + Russia - Does crop growth still appear to be disrupted?
Yes
Across most of Ukraine and the northern Russian winter wheat area ①, vegetation indices are improving, but still at a rather slow pace, continuing to reflect a significant delay in the crop cycle ②. To be monitored.
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