World in 10 Overview

01

Canada - Do vegetation indices highlight sowing delays?

Yes

 NDVI values are below average across a large part of the wheat area ①, with NDVI curves reflecting slow sowing progress and germination, in line with the late 2020 season ②. 

02

USA - Are the rainfall amounts forecast by GFS in the spring wheat area sufficient to rule out the risk of a poor 2021-like scenario?

No

 Above-average rainfall is expected in North Dakota according to GFS ①. However, these rains, which are not confirmed by ECMWF, are not sufficient to dismiss the similarity with the 2021 season ②, when dry conditions severely reduced yield potential. To be monitored. 

03

USA - Is the situation continuing to deteriorate across the winter wheat area?

Yes

 Vegetation indices are well below average in Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas ①, with NDVI curves highlighting an unfavorable pattern of very early senescence this season ②. 

04

Brazil - Are vegetation indices in southern Goiás and surrounding areas disappointing?

Yes

 In southeastern Mato Grosso, southern Goiás, and western Minas Gerais, vegetation indices are only near average ①, significantly lower than last year and in line with the disappointing 2021 season ②. The rest of the corn area is offsetting this part of the country, but the situation remains unfavorable. 

05

Brazil - Are vegetation indices satisfactory in Paraná?

Yes

 Paraná, the second-largest safrinha corn-producing state, is showing above-average vegetation indices ①. The similarity with 2022 ② would be disappointing (an average year), but we are not favoring this scenario as the current season does not appear to be experiencing the excess moisture observed in 2022. To be monitored. 

06

Argentina - Is the moisture situation favorable for the late stages of the corn and soybean cycles?

Yes

 A dry trend is anticipated by both the ECMWF ① and GFS ② models. This is favorable for the final stages of crop maturation and harvest operations. 

07

Australia - Has the moisture situation in the eastern part of the country improved enough for sowing?

Yes

 Soil moisture levels, which had been low in New South Wales in recent weeks ①, have improved significantly thanks to recent rainfall, reaching much more satisfactory levels for wheat, barley, and rapeseed sowing ②. 

08

Europe - Has the rainfall received in Poland allowed precipitation levels to return to seasonal averages?

No

 Rainfall over the past few days across the continent has been very favorable for crops ①. Nevertheless, in Poland and surrounding areas, the situation still requires monitoring, as rainfall has not been sufficient to fully return seasonal precipitation totals to normal levels ②. To be monitored. 

09

Europe - Is the situation in Germany becoming closer to the deteriorated conditions observed in Poland?

No

 Vegetation indices in Germany are not predominantly below average as they are in neighboring Poland ①, with NDVI curves that are not necessarily extremely high, but also do not indicate crop vigor being significantly affected by dry conditions ②. 

10

Russia + Ukraine - Does the trend in vegetation indices across the wheat area remain concerning?

No

 Vegetation indices still show low values over the past 10 days in Ukraine and western Russia ①. However, NDVI curves highlight a very strong acceleration in crop growth in recent days, offsetting the slow development observed in April ②. This is excellent news for wheat yield potential.