01
USA - Is the water situation improving across the entire core winter wheat production area?
No
Satisfactory rainfall has been observed in eastern Kansas over the past few days ①, with additional precipitation expected from the GFS in the coming days across eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas ②. However, the western part of the core production area will remain very dry. Situation to monitor.
02
Brazil - Is rainfall expected across a large part of the country in the coming days?
Yes
After a slightly dry trend over recent days ①, rainfall is expected to return, particularly according to the GFS model, which forecasts above-average precipitation from Mato Grosso to Rio Grande do Sul ②.
03
Brazil - Is there a favorable acceleration in corn growth in the central part of the country?
Yes
Vegetation indices remain below average in the core Safrinha corn production area ①, but NDVI profiles show faster growth in recent days, with the current season moving positively away from the unfavorable late 2021 scenario ②.
04
Brazil - Would the rainfall expected in the coming days according to the GFS be beneficial in Paraná?
Yes
At this stage, conditions in Paraná remain favorable, with NDVI values indicating positive crop growth ①. The beneficial rainfall expected in the coming days according to the GFS (not confirmed by the ECMWF) would help move away from the dry 2024 scenario ②. If rainfall does not materialize, short-term concern will remain limited, but water conditions could tighten in the coming weeks. Situation to monitor.
05
Argentina - Are dry conditions in the North a short-term concern?
No
Soil moisture levels are declining and are below average in the northern corn and soybean belt ①. This recent change in water conditions is not yet a concern, especially given the still very high vegetation indices across this part of the country ②.
06
Argentina - Is the end of the corn and soybean cycle satisfactory in Córdoba province?
Yes
In Córdoba province, the country’s leading corn and soybean producing region, vegetation indices are well above average ①, with slow end-of-season senescence that is highly favorable for yield formation during the grain filling and maturation stages ②.
07
Europe - Is part of the continent still exposed to dry conditions?
Yes
Rainfall over recent days has been below average across a significant part of the continent ①. Over the coming days, the ECMWF model indicates a continuation of the dry trend, increasingly worth monitoring in Poland, and to a lesser extent in Spain ②.
08
Europe - Is the recent cold weather a major concern for crops?
No
Although the actual impacts of the cold spell around March 27 will need to be monitored ①, the observed frost was comparable to similar events seen in 2021, 2022, and 2023 ②. Nothing exceptional at this stage, keeping concern levels low. Situation to monitor.
09
Russia + Ukraine - Will mild conditions continue over the coming days?
No
A cold spell is expected around April 4 across Europe, particularly centered over Ukraine and surrounding areas ①. This cold event is expected to be similar to what was observed last year and in 2021 ②. At this stage, no major concern is anticipated, but it is worth noting that the winter has been exceptionally mild, potentially reducing crop tolerance to cold conditions. Nevertheless, late April to early May cold events remain the main risk to monitor.
10
Russia + Ukraine - Does the water situation remain adequate despite limited precipitation in late winter and early spring?
Yes
Soil moisture levels remain close to average across the winter wheat areas in Ukraine and Russia ①, with higher levels at this stage compared to last year, for example ②.
1 / 1