01
USA - Is the GFS forecasting favorable rainfall across the winter wheat area over the coming days?
Yes
Above-average precipitation is expected in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas over the coming days according to the GFS ①. Vegetation indices remain low at this stage, and it will be important to monitor how crops respond to this improvement in water conditions ②.
02
USA - Are water conditions in the core corn production area adequate at the onset of planting?
Yes
While around 5% of the corn has been planted in the United States, soil moisture from North Dakota to Indiana is near to above average ①, with precipitation since March 1 also close to average ②. It is worth noting that the southern part of the Corn Belt has been drier in recent weeks.
03
Brazil - Do rainfall forecasts for the coming days remain uncertain?
Yes
While the ECMWF model indicates a dry trend across the eastern part of the country ①, the GFS forecasts significant rainfall favorable for Safrinha corn ②.
04
Brazil - Are crop conditions in central Mato Grosso satisfactory?
Yes
Although vegetation indices remain fairly heterogeneous in Mato Grosso ①, NDVI profiles indicate overall satisfactory conditions, with high values at this stage ②.
05
Brazil - Is the corn cycle still delayed in Goiás?
Yes
In the core Safrinha corn production area, Goiás still shows NDVI values below average ①, with profiles highlighting a significant delay in the crop cycle, close to the scenario observed during the poor 2021 season ②.
06
Argentina - Are crop conditions very good at the end of the corn and soybean cycle?
Yes
Soil moisture levels are high across the country ①, benefiting the end of the corn and soybean cycle, with crops currently showing strong vigor ②.
07
Europe - Is the water situation improving significantly in the central part of the continent?
No
Low soil moisture levels observed in Poland and surrounding areas ① are expected to remain unfavorable in this region ②.
08
Europe - Are vegetation indices continuing to increase rapidly in the western part of the continent?
No
NDVI values in France remain above average ①, but we are observing a clear slowdown in growth over recent days ②. This trend will need to be confirmed in the coming days, but it may be linked to the recent colder conditions observed across the western part of the continent.
09
Ukraine + Russia - Is the cold trend a major concern?
No
Temperatures remain below average across winter wheat areas in Ukraine and Russia ①. Minimum temperatures are, however, close to or even lower than those observed last year, which significantly limits concerns ②.
10
China - Does wheat growth appear satisfactory?
Yes
Vegetation indices are predominantly high across the wheat areas in China ①. In Shandong, NDVI profiles show extremely rapid and vigorous growth in recent days, with a crop cycle developing earlier than observed over the past five years ②.
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