World in 10 Overview

01

Canada - Are crops still maintaining good vigor at this stage?

Yes

 Vegetation indices across the Canadian Prairies remain near or above average ①, highlighting the resilience of crops to dry conditions and successive heat waves so far. Over the coming days, rainfall expected across Alberta should even help ease crop moisture stress ②. Conditions should nevertheless continue to be monitored, both in Alberta and across the rest of the wheat-growing region. 

02

USA - Do moisture conditions across the Corn Belt remain highly unstable?

Yes

 This U.S. corn and soybean season has been characterized by alternating periods of very dry and very wet conditions, combined with pronounced regional variability. The drought observed across the western and central Corn Belt in late July ① is giving way, in August, to excessively wet conditions across the central and eastern parts of the region ②. Such highly variable conditions can be a source of stress for crops. Worth monitoring closely. 

03

USA - Do corn and soybean vegetation indices appear disappointing across parts of the country?

Yes

 NDVI values across the U.S. Corn Belt appear to be below the five-year average over a significant share of the region ①. In Illinois, for example, NDVI curves remain above the 15-year average but are disappointing compared with recent growing seasons ②. While this trend will need to be confirmed over the coming weeks, it currently points to average yields—well above a poor crop scenario, but also short of exceptional yield potential. 

04

Brazil - Does the wheat-growing region remain wet?

Yes

 Brazil's wheat season has been characterized by exceptionally wet conditions, as shown by rainfall over the past 30 days ① and the ECMWF forecast for the next 14 days ②. However, caution is warranted: in the past, excessively wet wheat seasons in Brazil have often been associated with disappointing yields. Worth monitoring closely. 

05

Argentina - Is the wheat and barley season off to a favorable start?

Yes

 Rainfall over the past 10 days has been above average across Argentina's wheat and barley regions ①. In recent years, wetter seasons have generally been associated with excellent yields. This favorable start should be reflected in strong vegetation indices over the coming weeks ②. Worth monitoring closely. 

06

Australia - Is the shift toward a much drier weather pattern continuing across the country?

No

 The dry trend observed across the wheat-growing region in recent weeks is not expected to persist across the entire country, with above-average rainfall forecast over the southeastern regions according to the ECMWF ① and GFS ② models. 

07

Europe - Are conditions expected to improve across the corn-growing region?

No

 According to the ECMWF model, dry ① and hot ② conditions are expected to persist across much of Europe. This will continue to place significant pressure on corn and sunflower yield potential. 

08

Europe - Has corn yield potential deteriorated significantly across the continent?

No

 While spring crops across Europe are facing challenging conditions overall, vegetation indices remain noticeably less concerning at this stage across parts of eastern and northern Europe ①. In Poland, for example, NDVI values are currently very high, even exceeding those recorded during the excellent 2025 season ②. 

09

Russia - Is the decline in NDVI values across the Ural region a cause for concern for wheat yield potential?

No

 The decline observed over recent weeks in Siberia was a concern for yield potential. However, this is not the case for the current situation in the Ural region. Vegetation indices, now slightly below average ①, are more indicative of an early end to the growing season following a campaign characterized by exceptionally high NDVI values ②. We therefore remain optimistic about spring wheat yield potential in the Ural and Volga districts. 

10

India - Is the weaker monsoon pattern typically associated with El Niño beginning to materialize?

Yes

 Rainfall between June 1 and July 31 was below average across several states, particularly in the northern and southern parts of the country ①. In August, a drier pattern also appears to be developing across central India ②. Worth monitoring closely.