World in 10 Overview

01

Canada - Do crop conditions remain satisfactory at this stage of development?

Yes

 Soil moisture levels are expected to remain near or above average over the coming days across much of Canada’s wheat-growing region ①, while NDVI values remain high at this late stage of the crop cycle ②. 

02

USA - Are crop conditions heterogeneous across the region?

Yes

 While the western Corn Belt remains dry, soil moisture levels are high from Iowa to Ohio ①, with rainfall across the core production area alternating between very dry (late July) and very wet periods (early August) ②. 

03

USA - Are NDVI values consistent across the Corn Belt?

No

 Vegetation indices across U.S. corn and soybean areas are particularly heterogeneous this season ①, although overall levels remain broadly close to average at this stage ②. 

04

Brazil - Do soil moisture levels remain high across the wheat-growing region?

Yes

 Brazil’s wheat season continues to be characterized by particularly stable moisture conditions. Once again, soil moisture levels, which have remained high in recent days ①, are expected to stay elevated over the coming days ②. 

05

Argentina - Is crop growth progressing favorably?

Yes

 Vegetation indices across Argentina’s wheat and barley regions are well above average ①, with NDVI curves indicating rapid and particularly vigorous crop growth over the past few days ②. 

06

Australia - Are crops showing any impact from the dry conditions that have developed in the western part of the country?

Yes

 Vegetation indices across Western Australia, which has been affected by a dry trend, remain close to average ①. However, NDVI curves show noticeably weaker conditions compared with most recent years, with the exception of the last El Niño year in 2023 ②. 

07

Europe - Do weather models agree on the conditions expected over the coming days?

No

 Over the coming days, the ECMWF model forecasts predominantly dry conditions across Europe’s corn-growing region ①. The GFS model is more optimistic, with significant rainfall expected from Spain to Poland ②. Worth monitoring closely given the currently critical conditions for corn. 

08

Europe - Is the disastrous situation being confirmed across central-eastern Europe?

Yes

 Vegetation indices across Hungary and surrounding regions are extremely poor ①, with NDVI curves in Hungary showing the lowest values of the past 20 years ②. Corn and sunflower yield potential is therefore expected to be severely impacted. 

09

Ukraine - Does corn appear to be under stress in some parts of the country?

Yes

 Although the affected area remains limited, below-average NDVI values are observed across central parts of the country ①, with NDVI curves indicating accelerated crop senescence ②, most likely due to the current dry conditions. While this does not represent a major threat to national production, yield potential could be slightly reduced. 

10

China - Are moisture conditions becoming more challenging across the corn-growing region?

Yes

 Soil moisture remains low across parts of China’s corn-growing region, particularly in Jilin and Liaoning ①. In Liaoning, soil moisture levels are among the lowest observed in recent years ②. Crops are holding up well so far, but conditions will need to be monitored.