World in 10 Overview

01

Canada - Does crop vigor remain satisfactory in Alberta?

Yes

 Vegetation indices across Alberta remain well above average ①, with NDVI curves currently indicating a clear lengthening of the crop cycle ②. 

02

USA - Have moisture conditions been exceptionally wet across the eastern Corn Belt in recent days?

Yes

 Although declining, soil moisture levels from Illinois to Ohio remain extremely high ①, after reaching record-high levels just a few days ago ②. It remains to be seen whether crops will suffer from or, on the contrary, benefit from this exceptional amount of water. Worth monitoring! 

03

USA - Are we seeing a favorable trend in Iowa?

Yes

 Vegetation indices across Iowa, particularly in the southern part of the state ①, are stable or even slightly increasing ②, suggesting a possible extension of the crop cycle compared with previous years. To be confirmed! 

04

Brazil - Is some rainfall expected across the soybean-growing region over the coming days?

Yes

 With the first soybean planting about to begin, rainfall exceeding 10 mm is expected across a large part of the growing region according to the ECMWF ①. The GFS is less optimistic ②. At this stage, soil moisture levels are very low, making this rainfall particularly welcome. Worth monitoring! 

05

Argentina - Are soil moisture levels remaining stable across the wheat-growing region?

Yes

 Despite limited rainfall, soil moisture levels, which have remained close to average in recent days ①, are expected to remain relatively stable ②. No short-term concerns at this stage, but conditions should continue to be monitored. 

06

Australia - Is the severe El Niño scenario adopted by ABARES materializing at this stage?

No

 Australia’s official agency ABARES is forecasting very low national yields this year. However, recent rainfall ① and still very high NDVI values do not, at this stage, support such a pessimistic scenario ②. Worth monitoring! 

07

Europe - Does the NDVI response to recent rainfall radically change our corn yield outlook?

No

 Above-average rainfall across a large part of Europe in recent days ① may be contributing to a recovery in NDVI values in some countries, such as Italy and Germany ②. However, this recovery is coming very late, probably too late, and we remain very pessimistic about our corn yield outlook at this stage. 

08

Europe - Do crop conditions appear to be deteriorating in Romania?

Yes

 While vegetation indices were still high as of July 20, supporting our optimistic outlook for Romanian corn production ①, their evolution over the past few days has been unfavorable for yield potential ②. 

09

Ukraine - Do moisture conditions remain heterogeneous across the corn-growing region?

Yes

 Soil moisture levels in Ukraine over the past few days showed particularly dry conditions across the central region, while levels were higher in the east ①. Over the coming days, the central region is expected to remain dry, while conditions should improve in the south ②. 

10

India - Is the uneven monsoon pattern a concern for corn and soybean crops?

Yes

 Rainfall since June 1 has been uneven across the country. However, drier-than-average conditions still appear to prevail across the main corn and soybean-growing regions ①. In the south of the country, rainfall identified by our model is the lowest in the past 30 years ②.