Around February 25th, minimum temperatures below -15°C and snowfall were observed in the core winter wheat production area ①, but similarities with conditions observed last year over a very similar period help to put concerns into perspective ②.
01
USA - Is the cold snap in the core winter wheat production area a cause for concern at this stage?
No
02
BRAZIL - Is rainfall expected in the core soybean production area?
Yes
Rainfall slightly below average in recent days in Brazil ① is expected to give way to a wetter trend in Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso do Sul ②.
03
BRAZIL - Is dryness in the south already impacting crop vigor?
No
Rainfall is expected to remain below average in the south over the coming days ①. This dry trend should be monitored, but it is not leading to any notable deterioration in NDVI values at this stage ②.
04
BRAZIL - Is crop vigor satisfactory in the central part of the country?
Yes
Vegetation indices remain mostly above average in the core soybean production area ①, with NDVI curves indicating a favorable lengthening of the crop cycle ②, which is positive for yield formation.
05
BRAZIL - Are crop conditions adequate in Paraná?
Yes
NDVI values are close to or above average in the state of Paraná ①, with NDVI curves indicating a situation that is not exceptional but nonetheless satisfactory for crops ②.
06
ARGENTINA - Is the dry trend record-breaking in part of the soybean and maize area?
Yes
Rainfall over the coming days is expected to remain low in the central and eastern maize and soybean areas ①, with cumulative precipitation since December 1st being the lowest of the past 30 years ②.
07
ARGENTINA - Is yield potential already significantly reduced for maize and soybean?
No
Despite an ongoing severe drought ① and partly disappointing vegetation indices ②,comparison with last year—when the second half of the cycle fully offset early-cycle difficulties—leads us to remain cautious regarding estimates of yield potential losses. It is still too early, and February/March conditions will be key. Stay tuned!
08
EUROPE - Is the amount of rainfall in Spain exceptional?
Yes
Rainfall over the coming days is expected to be well above average across the Iberian Peninsula ①, with cumulative precipitation far exceeding that of recent years ②. Comparable water conditions were last observed in 2010 and 2011.
09
RUSSIA + UKRAINE - Are new cold waves expected from Eastern Europe to Russia?
Yes
The cold trend observed in recent days from Poland to Russia ① is expected to continue and intensify in the coming days ②. At this stage, the significant snow cover is likely providing adequate crop protection. Stay tuned!
10
INDIA - Is crop vigor generally high across the rapeseed and wheat area?
Yes
Despite difficulties in interpreting the NDVI signal in the northern areas near the Himalayan range, NDVI values in the rapeseed and wheat area are generally above average ①, with NDVI curves indicating an early but satisfactory crop cycle ②.
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