World in 10 Overview

01

USA - Will dry conditions in western Kansas and surrounding areas persist?

Yes

 Over the next 10 days, the ECMWF model indicates continued dry conditions across the core winter wheat production area ①. The GFS projects more rainfall, but a dry trend is still expected to persist in western Kansas ②. Water requirements are increasing in the region. 

02

Brazil - Do the models indicate rainfall in the Safrinha region over the coming days?

No

 The ECMWF model forecasts less rainfall over the coming days ① compared to the GFS model ②. In any case, water conditions should not be an issue for corn crops. 

03

Brazil - Is the Safrinha corn cycle delayed in the core production area?

Yes

 Vegetation indices from eastern Mato Grosso to western Minas Gerais ① are significantly below average, with profiles close to the 2021 season at this stage ②. 

04

Brazil - Is the Safrinha crop cycle satisfactory in Paraná?

Yes

 Vegetation indices in the Safrinha corn area of Paraná ① are above average on average, with NDVI profiles close to the 2022 season at this stage ②. 

05

Argentina - Do soil moisture levels remain adequate across a large part of the corn belt?

Yes

 A comparison of soil moisture maps over the past 10 days ① and the next 10 days ② highlights fairly stable conditions across a large part of the country, with the notable exception of some municipios in the provinces of Córdoba and Santiago del Estero. No short-term issues are expected for late-cycle crops. 

06

Argentina - Is the end-of-season extension as favorable as in 2025?

No

 In the core corn and soybean production area ①, although the second half of the cycle, supported by the return of rainfall, is much more favorable than the early season, vegetation indices are not as strong as those observed last year ②. 

07

Europe - Do both models agree on the return of rainfall in Poland and surrounding areas?

No

 Precipitation over the coming days is expected to remain below average according to the ECMWF in Poland and surrounding areas ①, while the GFS is more optimistic regarding expected rainfall ②. 

08

Europe - Have vegetation indices in the durum wheat area become more satisfactory in recent days?

Yes

 Vegetation indices are currently high in southern Spain ①, with NDVI profiles close to those observed last season, which was a good year for durum wheat yields ②. 

09

Russia + Ukraine - Is the dry trend continuing according to the ECMWF?

Yes

 Dry conditions are expected to persist over the coming days according to the ECMWF ①, while the GFS anticipates a wetter trend supportive for crops ②. At this stage, crop water requirements remain low but will gradually increase through the spring. No short-term concern, but the situation should be monitored. 

10

China - Are vegetation indices satisfactory across most of the wheat belt?

Yes

 Vegetation indices are currently, with the exception of Henan, above average across the core wheat production area ①, with NDVI profiles indicating favorable vegetative growth over recent days ②.