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Both ECMWF ① and GFS ② forecast predominantly dry conditions across the main agricultural areas over the next 10 days, favoring field operations as corn and soybean harvesting and winter wheat planting approach completion.
01
USA - Is rainfall expected to continue across the Corn Belt?
NO
02
Brazil - Is the recent rainfall pattern raising concerns for crop development?
NOT YET
Brazil experienced contrasting rainfall patterns in recent days ①. Heavy rainfall in the South may have delayed soybean and corn planting and wheat harvesting, raising grain quality concerns. Meanwhile, below-average rainfall in the Center-North poses limited immediate risk, as summer crops are still in their early stages. The ECMWF forecasts ② below- to near-average rainfall, favoring field operations but prolonging moisture deficits in the Center-North.
03
Brazil - Is below-average soil moisture threatening soybean crop development?
NOT YET
Soil moisture has remained below average ① since planting began, but levels have been similar to or higher than last year, when yields were satisfactory, mitigating immediate concerns. Forecasts indicate a sharp recovery, potentially creating more favorable conditions by mid-November.
04
Brazil - Could November rainfall threaten wheat quality and summer crop establishment?
Yes
Heavy rainfall ① in Southern Brazil resembles conditions observed in 2015 and 2023, both El Niño years, when excessive November rainfall severely affected wheat harvested late in the season. A similar risk could emerge this year, while persistent wet conditions may also disrupt summer crop planting and early establishment.
05
Brazil - Will soil moisture conditions improve across the main soybean areas?
Yes
Soil moisture remains below average across much of Mato Grosso and parts of the Center-North ①. However, the ECMWF forecasts a significant recovery by November 19 ②, particularly across Mato Grosso, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, potentially creating more favorable conditions for soybean establishment and early development.
06
Argentina - Are wheat conditions pointing to a favorable season?
Yes
Vegetation indices ① remain high across Argentina’s wheat-growing areas, pointing to favorable crop conditions and a satisfactory season, although not as strong as last year.
07
Argentina - Are barley conditions pointing to a favorable season?
Yes
Vegetation indices ① across the main barley-growing areas remain relatively high, particularly in Buenos Aires, where NDVI is close to last season's levels and above most recent years. Despite some regional variability, current conditions suggest favorable prospects for barley.
08
Argentina - Will rainfall favor summer crop planting?
Yes
Both ECMWF ① and GFS ② forecast above-average rainfall across much of Córdoba and Santa Fe over the next 10 days, potentially favoring soil moisture recovery and early corn and soybean establishment. However, below-average rainfall is expected across much of Buenos Aires, maintaining a strong regional contrast.
09
Australia - Are crop conditions pointing to an exceptional season?
Yes
Vegetation indices ① across South Australia and Victoria reached exceptionally high levels this season, surpassing even 2016 and 2022, two of the strongest production years. Although conditions vary regionally, the unusually high NDVI suggests strong crop development and supports a favorable production outlook.
10
Europe - Will soil moisture conditions improve across the continent?
No
Soil moisture is currently below average across much of Europe ①, particularly in France, Poland and Central Europe. The ECMWF forecast ② indicates a further expansion of moisture deficits through November 14, especially across France, Germany and Poland.
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