World in 10 Overview

01

Canada - Will the dry weather observed in recent days persist across the entire wheat-growing region?

No

 Dry weather is expected to persist across Saskatchewan over the coming days, supporting harvest progress. However, conditions could be more challenging in Alberta, with significant rainfall forecast by both the ECMWF ① and GFS ② models. 

02

USA - Will conditions over the coming days be favorable for grain maturation and the first corn harvests?

Yes

 A dry pattern is expected over the coming days across the core corn- and soybean-growing regions, according to both the ECMWF ① and GFS ② models. These conditions would help reduce the risk of grain quality deterioration. 

03

USA - Is crop vigor satisfactory across a large part of the soybean-growing region?

Yes

 Vegetation indices across the central soybean-growing region are mostly above average ①, with NDVI curves indicating a favorable extension of the crop cycle, as observed in Iowa ②. 

04

Brazil - Are the moisture deficits observed in early September persisting at the start of the soybean growing season?

No

 Rainfall has been above average in recent days across the soybean-growing region, parts of which were still experiencing dry conditions in early September ①. This favorable wet pattern is expected to continue over the coming days, according to the ECMWF ②. 

05

Brazil - Are conditions favorable in Mato Grosso?

Yes

 Vegetation indices, still low at this stage, suggest that soybean planting is not particularly early this year ①. However, this is not a major concern, given the now favorable cumulative rainfall, which is near or above levels observed in recent years ②. 

06

Argentina - Are dry conditions still a concern across the wheat-growing region?

No

 Rainfall received across most of the country in recent days ① has led to a significant improvement in soil moisture levels ②, providing much-needed relief for crops. 

07

Australia - Are vegetation indices deteriorating across the country?

Yes

 Although these deteriorations remain limited and are occurring late in the crop cycle, we observe a negative shift in vegetation indices between mid-September ① and early October ②, particularly in Western Australia and New South Wales. 

08

Europe - Are drought conditions still a concern across the wheat-growing region?

Yes

 Soil moisture levels, below average across much of the continent in recent days ①, are expected to remain below average in many countries over the coming days ②. 

09

Ukraine + Russia - Are soil moisture levels declining across the wheat areas in Ukraine and Russia?

Yes

 Although not a major concern at this stage, the dry pattern observed in recent days across Ukraine and western Russia ①, which is expected to persist over the coming days ②, will need to be monitored in the coming weeks. In the short term, these conditions could support the completion of wheat planting. 

10

India - Are the latest NDVI updates a cause for concern?

Yes

 Vegetation indices in Maharashtra are below average ①, with particularly concerning NDVI curves for crop yield potential, as values are by far the lowest recorded over the past five years ②. These readings will need to be confirmed to rule out potential data errors, but the situation remains concerning. Worth monitoring!