World in 10 Overview

01

Canada - Could October mark a turning point for harvest?

YES

Heavy rainfall throughout September significantly delayed harvest across the Canadian Prairies, leaving progress well behind historical averages ①. However, conditions are now turning much more favorable, with predominantly dry weather forecast across the main producing areas in early October ②. This should provide an important window for farmers to accelerate field operations and reduce further harvest delays.

02

USA - Are conditions becoming more favorable for corn and soybean harvest?

Yes

Above-average rainfall across much of the Corn Belt during September slowed corn and soybean harvest in several key producing states ①. However, a much drier pattern is forecast across most of the region over the next 10 days ②, providing an opportunity for fields to dry and harvest operations to accelerate into early October.

03

Brazil - Will soil moisture finally support soybean planting in Mato Grosso?

Yes

Soil moisture remains well below average across much of Mato Grosso ①, still limiting favorable conditions for soybean planting. However, the ECMWF forecasts a sharp recovery in early October ②, which, if confirmed, should provide a much more favorable window for planting to accelerate and support crop establishment.

04

Argentina - Has recent rainfall supported a wheat recovery?

Yes

NDVI ① dynamics have improved in recent days, coinciding with the return of rainfall ②. The current trajectory is moving away from the very poor 2022 season and increasingly toward 2023 and 2024, which were also below-average years, but significantly better than 2022.

05

Australia - Is the deterioration in northern New South Wales continuing?

Yes

Crop conditions continue to deteriorate across northern New South Wales  ①, where vegetation indices have declined sharply in recent weeks. In contrast, conditions remain significantly better farther south, highlighting a strong regional divergence in the outlook for Australian winter crops.

06

Australia - Are favorable conditions in the south easing concerns over northern deterioration?

Yes

While crop conditions continue to deteriorate across northern New South Wales, the broader Australian outlook remains more favorable. Stronger vegetation conditions ① across South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales are helping offset the deterioration farther north, limiting its impact on the overall winter crop outlook.

07

Europe - Will dry conditions persist across the continent?

YES

Dry conditions persisted across much of Europe over the past 10 days ①, providing limited opportunity for soil moisture recovery. The ECMWF forecasts another predominantly dry period over the next 10 days ②, which may keep conditions less favorable for winter wheat planting.

08

Ukraine + Russia - Have recent rains improved conditions for winter wheat planting?

Yes

Recent rainfall ① has significantly improved soil moisture ② across the main wheat-producing areas. The recovery is creating more favorable conditions for winter wheat planting and early establishment.

09

India - Is the rainfall deficit affecting crop conditions?

Yes

Low rainfall in August and September has led to a deterioration in crop conditions across the main soybean and kharif corn areas, with NDVI ① now falling below 2023 levels.

10

China - Will weather conditions favor corn and soybean harvest?

Yes

Predominantly dry conditions are forecast across the main corn and soybean areas in Northeast China by both ECMWF ① and GFS ②. The lack of significant rainfall should favor harvest progress and field operations over the next 10 days.