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Harvest remains delayed across the Canadian Prairies after a prolonged crop cycle. Both ECMWF ① and GFS ② forecast above-average rainfall over the next 10 days, which could further slow field operations and increase quality risks.
01
Canada - Rainfall could further delay the Canadian harvest?
Yes
02
USA - U.S. Corn Belt: Did August’s exceptional rainfall cause widespread crop damage?
No
Soil moisture has declined significantly from its mid-August peak although remains above average from Iowa to Ohio ①. Despite the recent excessive rainfall, vegetation indices show no clear signs of widespread crop damage, remaining close to recent years as crops enter normal senescence ②.
03
USA - Is the central-western Corn Belt moving away from the poor 2023 scenario?
Yes
In the central-western ① Corn Belt, conditions are becoming increasingly different from the poor 2023 season. Vegetation indices ② have remained significantly higher in recent weeks, with a longer crop cycle pointing to a more favorable outcome this season.
04
Brazil - Will the return of rainfall benefit soybeans while increasing risks for wheat?
Yes
ECMWF ① and GFS ② forecast above-average rainfall across much of central and southern Brazil over the next 10 days. The wetter pattern should help rebuild soil moisture ahead of soybean planting, particularly across the Center-West, while potentially delaying wheat field operations and increasing quality risks in southern producing areas as crops approach maturity and harvest.
05
Argentina - Is the forecast dry spell a concern for wheat and barley?
No
Despite a significantly drier forecast for the next 10 days ①, there is little concern for wheat and barley development. Soil moisture should remain at satisfactory levels across the main producing areas ②, providing sufficient water availability to sustain favorable crop development.
06
Australia - Is the El Niño-related dry pattern starting to emerge?
Maybe
August was generally favorable for Australian winter crops, with above-average rainfall across several key producing areas despite El Niño ①. However, the next 10 days show a clear shift toward drier conditions ②, potentially signaling the emergence of an El Niño-related pattern. It remains too early to confirm, but the evolution deserves close monitoring.
07
Europe - Will the recent rains persist in the coming days?
No
Recent rainfall ① across parts of Europe may have slightly eased crop stress, but arrived too late to reverse the damage already suffered by corn. With dry conditions ② forecast to quickly return across much of the continent, soil moisture recovery will remain limited, potentially leaving winter wheat planting to begin under dry conditions.
08
Russia & Ukraine - Will dry conditions persist across the corn and sunflower areas?
Yes
Dry conditions persisted across much of the main corn and sunflower areas in Ukraine and southern Russia over the past 10 days ①. Rainfall should improve farther north, but the main southern producing regions are expected to remain dry ②. At this stage of the season, the persistent moisture deficit is likely to limit any meaningful recovery of crops already affected by earlier stress.
09
India - Will monsoon rainfall remain weak?
Yes
India’s 2026 monsoon remains particularly weak, with cumulative rainfall among the lowest of the past decades and currently exceeding only 2015, another strong El Niño year ②. The similarity reinforces concerns over the potential influence of El Niño, while the uneven distribution of recent rainfall ① remains a risk for soybean and other kharif crops.
10
China - Is Northeast China heading toward a favorable season?
Yes
Conditions remain favorable across much of Northeast China ①, with vegetation indices among the highest of recent years and a relatively prolonged crop cycle ②, supporting a positive production outlook.
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