July World in 10: Canadian Crops Defy the Heat as European Corn Deteriorates

Vegetation indices confirm Canada's resilience through a hot, dry July. Source: EarthDaily analysis

July brought a mix of resilience and deterioration across major crop-producing regions, as heat and dryness reshaped outlooks from the Canadian Prairies to Western Europe. Our analysis shows some regions that entered the month under stress finding late relief, while others saw early strength give way to mounting risk as the season progressed. The result is a patchier global picture heading into the final stretch of the growing season, with August shaping up as a pivotal month for several key crops.

Key Takeaways

• Exceptional Canadian crop vigor resisted the increasingly hot and dry weather throughout July.

• U.S. spring wheat improved before deteriorating in North Dakota, while corn and soybeans remained broadly satisfactory.

• Rainfall transformed Argentina’s initially dry outlook into a favorable start for wheat and barley.

• European corn deteriorated throughout the month, especially in France, while northern Italy proved more resilient than initially feared.

• Dryness progressively weakened Russian spring wheat in Siberia and became a renewed risk for Ukrainian corn.

• Australia shifted from favorable early-July conditions toward a drier and more uncertain outlook.

North America

Canada began July with above-average crop vigor, which strengthened further by mid-month. Hot and dry conditions then became increasingly established, but exceptionally high vegetation indices were still holding by month-end. With much of the cycle still ahead, the question is whether this remarkable resilience can continue through August.

South America

Southern Brazil remained consistently wet throughout July, with moisture increasing further and Paraná recording some of its highest rainfall levels of the past decade.

Argentina followed a clearer turnaround: early-July dry weather supported planting; rainfall returned around mid-month and became more widespread thereafter. By month-end, moisture conditions were providing a favorable start for wheat and barley.

July rainfall transforms the outlook for Argentine wheat and barley. Source: EarthDaily analysis

Europe & Black Sea

European corn entered July under heat and dryness, deteriorated sharply during flowering, and faced extreme moisture deficits by month-end. France recorded the most severe decline, with exceptionally low crop vigor in the southwest. Northern Italy initially appeared to be approaching the disastrous 2022 scenario, but crops subsequently proved more resilient than feared.

In Ukraine, early-July dryness was temporarily eased by rainfall, keeping corn vigor close to average. Renewed dryness at month-end nevertheless revived the risk of moving toward the poor 2024 scenario. In eastern Russia, sustained moisture stress in Siberia progressively triggered early spring-wheat senescence and reduced yield potential.

French corn deteriorates sharply due to the very dry and hot weather. Source: EarthDaily analysis

Australia

Australia began July with adequate water reserves and strong crop vigor following earlier rainfall. A dry pattern then gradually developed, raising concerns about a possible El Niño-related shift. By month-end, the outlook had become more uncertain.

Australia shifts toward drier weather, creating a more uncertain outlook. Source: EarthDaily analysis

Asia

China remained broadly favorable through most of July thanks to abundant seasonal rainfall. By month-end, however, conditions were becoming more contrasted, with improvement in Heilongjiang but declining moisture in Liaoning and Shandong.

India’s monsoon started the month weak or near average depending on the regions, before becoming particularly uneven. Later rainfall brought relief mainly to the north, leaving its distribution still a concern for the rest of the country.

Despite significant regional disparities, the weak monsoon in parts of India is a concern. Source: EarthDaily analysis

What to Watch in August

• Canada: Can exceptional crop vigor survive another month of hot and dry weather?

• United States: Will rainfall stabilize corn and soybeans vigor?

• Europe: How much irreversible damage has July’s drought caused to corn and sunflower yields?

• Ukraine and Russia: Will dryness further weaken Ukrainian corn?

• Australia: Will rainfall return, or is a more persistent El Niño-related dry pattern emerging?

• Asia: Will moisture disparities linked to the weak monsoon intensify across India?

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